Research Article

THE EFFECTS OF ENERGY PRICES ON THE INFLATION RATE OF WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES

ABSTRACT

The Western Balkan countries have experienced significant economic fluctuations in recent years. Among the primary contributors to these fluctuations is the volatility of energy prices. Energy, being a fundamental input in both production and consumption, has a direct and often disproportionate impact on inflation trends. Therefore, this study analyzes how energy prices have contributed to inflation in the Western Balkan (WB) countries in the period 2002 and 2022. The panel regression models, such as the fixed and random effects model as well as the Least Square Dummy Variables (LSDV), have been employed. The results reveal that there is a positive and significant relationship between energy prices and inflation. Variations in energy dependency, domestic energy policies, and economic structures lead to different inflationary responses across the Western Balkan countries. Countries with higher dependence on imported energy tend to experience more pronounced inflationary pressures.

REFERENCES

Bigerna, S. (2023). Energy Price Shocks, Exchange Rates and Inflation Nexus. Energy Economics, 128, 107156. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.107156.
Bruno, M. & Sachs, J. (1985). Economics of Worldwide Stagflation. Cambridge, MA and London, England: Harvard University Press. https://doi.org/10.4159/harvard.9780674493049
Casoli, C., Manera, M., & Valenti, D. (2022). Energy Shocks in the Euro area: Disentangling the Pass-through from Oil and Gas Prices to Inflation. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4307682.
Ferguson, T., & Storm, S. (2023). Myth and Reality in the Great Inflation Debate: Supply Shocks and Wealth Effects in a Multipolar World Economy. International Journal of Political Economy, 52(1), 1–44. https://doi.org/10.1080/08911916.2023.2191421.
Kraja, G., Dedej, D., & Prendi, L. (2022). Economic Development, Unemployment and Inflation in the Western Balkans. Interdisciplinary Journal of Research and Development, 9(4. S1), 1.https://doi.org/10.56345/ijrdv9n4s101.
Minasyan, G., Pinat, M., Ozturk, E., Wang, M., & Zhu, Z. (2023). Inflation Dynamics in the Western Balkans. IMF Working Paper, 2023(049), 1–1. https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400235184.001.
Munteanu, P., & David, G. (2023). The Energy Crisis and its Real Impact on the Inflation Rate. Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, 17(1), 48–61. https://doi.org/10.2478/picbe-2023-0007.
Obradović, S., & Lojanica, N. (2022). Are Inflation Rates Stationary in the Western Balkan Countries? Evidence from Unit Root Tests. Politická Ekonomie, 70(4), 421–439. https://doi.org/10.18267/j.polek.1362.
Petrovska, M., & Nikolov, M. (2018). The Determinants of Core Inflation in the Republic of Macedonia. Journal of Contemporary Economic and Business Issues, 1857- 9108, Ss. Cyril and
Methodius University in Skopje, Faculty of Economics, Skopje, 5 (1), 25–34. http://hdl.handle.net/10419/193482.
Vlieghe, G. (2024). “Core Strength: International Evidence on the Impact of Energy Prices on Core Inflation,” Discussion Papers 2407, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
Weber, M., D’Acunto, F., Gorodnichenko, Y., & Coibion, O. (2022). The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms: Measurement, Determinants, and Implications. SSRN
Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4151270.
World Bank (2022). Western Balkans Regular Economic Report No. 21 (Spring 2022): Steering Through Crisis. Washington D.C.: World Bank Group.
World Bank. (2022). Western Balkans Regular Economic Report, No. 22 (Fall 2022): Beyond the Crises. Washington, DC. World Bank Group.
Yıldırım, S., Özdemir, B. K., & Doğan, B. (2013). Is There a Persistent Inflation in OECD Energy Prices? Evidence from Panel Unit Root Tests. Procedia Economics and Finance, 5, 809–818. https://doi.org/10.1016/s2212-5671(13)00093-2.

Keywords

Inflation energy prices WB panel regression LSDV