Research Article

APPLICATION OF SCENARIO PLANNING IN TURBULENT ENVIRONMENT: CASE OF FINANCIAL COMPANIES IN RNM

ABSTRACT

Today’s contemporary environment is characterized with high degree of uncertainty, dynamic changes and innovation. Such a turbulent environment requires from companies to develop ability for identifying and analyzing of factors that drive changes and an ability for anticipating solutions to potential threats. Throughout the history, forecasting and strategic planning have been continuously applied in practice, as ways to establish a vital link between the future of the company and the environment. However, both of these lack the ability to incorporate massive and unexpected political, environmental, economic and social changes into plans. With the advent of scenario planning, plans are being made for significant changes in the environment for which data are limited. Therefore, planners by telling more alternative stories about the future, companies can include structurally different and unexpected future events, factors and actors in their plans for their future environment and answers to them. The main purpose of this research paper is to examine the degree of scenario planning application in the process of thinking and formulating alternative courses of action for the future in financial companies in Republic of North Macedonia. In order to present the application of scenario planning in turbulent environment this research paper makes literature review of scenario planning characteristics and its advantages and additionally, conducts descriptive statics by using data from author’s empirical research conducted in 2016 which covered 9 financial companies (6 banks and 3 non-bank financial companies). The results showed that the degree of application of scenario planning is moderate to significant in Macedonian surveyed financial companies. Also, this research paper strives to encourage companies in financial sector in RNM to use scenario planning as a key technique for dealing with uncertainty in the future global business environment.

Keywords

SCENARIO PLANNING SCENARIO TURBULENT ENVIRONMENT FORECASTING